Feature Request: A More Complete WIS-WAR

I like the recent addition of Wismetrics, but I think there's an opportunity to make WIS-WAR a much more useful statistic.

Currently, WIS-WAR appears to function primarily as another offensive production metric, which overlaps considerably with Runs Created (RC), a statistic WIS already provides.

I'd love to see WIS develop a more comprehensive version of WAR using statistics the simulation already tracks.

My suggestion would be to calculate position-player WAR from four components:

1. Offensive Runs

Use existing Runs Created, adjusted against the current simulated league's average RC per plate appearance.

Offensive Runs = Player RC − (League RC/PA × Player PA)

This provides an estimate of offensive value above league average without requiring another offensive metric.

2. Defensive Runs

WIS already tracks superior defensive plays (+), inferior defensive plays (−), errors, fielding chances, and defensive innings.

These could form the basis of a straightforward defensive runs model:

Fielding Runs =

• 0.7 × (Superior Plays − Expected Superior Plays)

• − 0.7 × (Inferior Plays − Expected Inferior Plays)

• 0.6 × (Expected Errors − Actual Errors)

The weights above are illustrative starting estimates of run values, not definitive coefficients. Ideally, WIS could calibrate them using its own simulated play outcomes.

Expected plays would be calculated using current league averages at each defensive position, prorated for playing time and opportunities.

• For superior and inferior plays, use rates per defensive inning initially, or balls in play when that information is available.

• For errors, use each position's league-average error rate per fielding chance.

This would produce a defensive runs-above-average estimate using existing WIS statistics.

Additional catcher defense:

Because catchers have responsibilities beyond ordinary fielding, their defensive runs should also incorporate:

• Caught stealing and stolen bases allowed, compared against league-average CS% for the number of attempts faced.

• Passed balls, compared against league-average catcher performance relative to workload.

• Catcher pickoffs, if separately identifiable.

For instance, a preliminary throwing-runs formula could be:

Catcher Arm Runs = 0.6 × (CS − League CS% × SBA)

This estimates the run value of preventing additional stolen bases relative to an average catcher.

WIS would need to ensure that overlapping defensive events aren't counted twice.

3. Positional Adjustment

Because defensive runs are measured relative to the average player at each position, a second adjustment is necessary to recognize that playing an average shortstop is more valuable than playing an average first baseman.

WIS could initially borrow the established FanGraphs positional adjustment values:

Positional Runs = (Innings at Position / 1,458) × Positional Run Value

This would reward players for the defensive positions they actually occupy.

Players who play multiple positions:

Calculate fielding runs and positional adjustments independently for each position and add them together.

For example, a player who spends:

• 600 innings at SS: +3.09 positional runs

• 400 innings at 2B: +0.69 positional runs

• 200 innings in LF: −1.03 positional runs

Would receive a total positional adjustment of +2.74 runs.

His fielding runs would likewise be the sum of his performance relative to the league average at SS, 2B, and LF.

This would accurately measure utility players and players used at multiple positions without arbitrarily assigning their entire defensive value to a single primary position.

For DH appearances, playing time would need to be measured separately because DHs don't accumulate defensive innings.

4. Replacement Level

Add a standardized replacement-level adjustment based on playing time.

An initial approximation could be:

Replacement Runs = 20 × (PA / 600)

This would then be calibrated to an appropriate replacement-level baseline for WIS leagues.

Final WAR Calculation

Total WAR = (Offensive Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Runs + Replacement Runs) / Runs Per Win

The league's scoring environment could determine the runs-per-win conversion, with approximately 10 runs per win as an initial estimate.

For the user interface, it would be great to see separately sortable statistics:

• Offensive Runs Above Average

• Fielding Runs Above Average

• Positional Runs

• Total Defensive Runs (Fielding + Positional)

• Total WAR

A small league adjustment could also ensure league-wide runs above average are centered at zero.

This wouldn't require recreating FanGraphs' or Baseball-Reference's models or developing a sophisticated new defensive tracking system. It would mostly involve combining and normalizing statistics WIS already generates.

Even if the first version were approximate, I think it would add considerably more value than another batting-only metric. It would also make comparing player contributions across positions and different league environments much more meaningful.

The biggest benefit is that WIS could use its own simulated results to measure the actual contribution of players, rather than relying entirely on their original historical ratings.